maandag 9 september 2013

99% not..??


How is it when something positive happens to you and you should be happy, you are not. There is still a a worry or concern.


When are good odds not good odds?

If someone gave you you 99% chance of something having a positive outcome, one would normally be very happy with that sort of outcome. You would put money on that bet.

But what if someone says that in their experience, anything higher than a 0.5% chance of failure, is a high risk bet, and that in your case there is a 1% risk of failure, of a negative outcome. I would normally say, don't be reidiculous. A 1% chance of a negative result is a good result, surely?

I guess when you want something to happen, you are happy with 99% but when you don't want something to awful to happen, even a 1% chance is a risk. After all, you could be that 1%. 

I guess for now that I have to be happy with 99% chance of the negative outcome not happening. 

It is hard not to go into detail about this. But maybe I can later on.




 

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